Black Myth's Success Sparked a 3A Gold Rush — But Many Projects Got Cancelled

Black Myth: Wukong proved Chinese AAA games can sell, but insiders say investors who don't understand 3-5 year dev cycles are already pulling the plug on ambitious projects.

Black Myth: Wukong didn't just sell copies — it opened a door. The hit action RPG proved that Chinese-developed premium single-player games can find a massive audience, and investors noticed. But according to industry insider Daniel Olimac, the gold rush that followed has a darker side that few people are talking about: over the past two or three years, a whole batch of Chinese AAA projects have been cancelled or quietly pivoted to something else entirely.

So what's going wrong? Olimac points the finger at one big issue — investors underestimating how long games actually take to make. After Wukong's success, plenty of investors and venture capital firms started pouring money into high-quality Chinese single-player games. The problem is, some of them had no idea what a AAA development cycle looks like. When they realized a project might need three to five years before it ships — and that short-term returns just weren't happening — they pulled their funding or pushed studios to change direction.

It sounds wild, but it's not that rare. Olimac compares the situation to the crypto, metaverse, NFT, Web3 and early VR hype cycles. When a field suddenly gets hot, investors rush in without really understanding the industry, then bail when they can't stomach the actual development timeline and business risk. Sound familiar?

Here's the thing though — Wukong isn't the only game that built this moment. Olimac stresses that Chinese AAA development has been powered by more than one title. Free-to-play giants like Genshin Impact played a huge role too. The money, experience and market confidence built up by successful Chinese mobile and free-to-play games are exactly what made large premium projects possible in the first place.

And it's not like these two worlds are separate. Plenty of developers on Chinese AAA teams cut their teeth in mobile games. The free-to-play, mobile and premium single-player sides of the Chinese games industry are tightly connected — not isolated silos.

The real test for this AAA wave isn't whether it can attract money. It's whether investors can wrap their heads around the long game. Black Myth: Wukong proved the potential is real. Turning that potential into a steady stream of big-budget Chinese games will take something more — a stable balance between funding, realistic development timelines and business expectations.

What do you think — can Chinese AAA studios ride out the hype cycle, or will short-term thinking keep killing promising projects? Drop your take in the comments.